The oil markets finished the week with more strength, with geopolitical tensions coupled with supply uncertainty and expectations by the investors driving the prices out of their recent lows. The current price of oil increased following the news that the United States can block the tankers of Venezuela, and the international traders were very alert to the latest indications regarding the Russian-Ukraine peace negotiations.

Despite the fact that weekly performance was once again a bit negative, the bigger perspective indicates that the balance is returning to the market, which is a significant indicator for oil and gas investors, mineral owners, and energy-oriented portfolios.

Brent crude closed at $60.47 per barrel, an appreciation of 1.1, and the WTI crude oil price at $56.66, an appreciation of 0.9. These profits indicate that the market is starting to value the risk of a supply, although the demand issue remains.

To the investors, the current price of oil reflects a game of tug-of-war as the market is caught between the short-run fears of oversupply and the long-run risks of geopolitical instability that can only lead to a tightening of the global supply.

Where Oil Prices Stand Today

Before diving deeper into the drivers behind this move, here’s a quick look at the latest figures shaping today’s market:

Benchmark	Settlement Price	Daily Change	Weekly Trend
Brent Crude	$60.47/barrel	+1.1%	~1% lower
WTI Crude	$56.66/barrel	+0.9%	~1% lower

While both benchmarks remain below recent highs, the price of oil per barrel today is showing resilience after last week’s sharp 4% decline. This stabilization is encouraging for investors watching for a bottom in the energy market.

Venezuela Tanker Blockade: A New Supply Risk Emerges

Among others, one of the greatest influences that underlies the current price of oil is increasing uncertainty over Venezuelan exports. The Trump administration has indicated that it will intercept authorized tankers going in or out of Venezuela, which could disrupt the supply of a nation that produces about 1 percent of all the world's oil.

Even as the U.S. military continues to strengthen its presence in the Caribbean, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio affirmed that Washington is not too worried about the possibility of increasing the escalation with Russia with respect to Venezuela. President Donald Trump also reserved the right to do more, which contributed to market uncertainty.

Why Venezuela is Important to the World Oil Prices

Although Venezuela is a minor producer relative to large producers, any kind of unrest in the country can nonetheless shake markets:

Venezuelan crude is mainly exported to China and a few of the Asian purchasers.
Any enforcement measure increases shipping risks and insurance expenses.
Sanctions restrict the oil movement around the world.

Two unapproved cargoes were said to have left Venezuela to go to China, and a number of sanctioned ships either stopped moving or diverted to the Atlantic. To add to the situation, a Russian tanker with naphtha in it also entered Venezuelan waters.

These advances bring a dimension of risk that favors the current price of oil, particularly when the markets are already sensitive to news about supply.

Russia-Ukraine Talks: A Wild Card for Oil Markets

Meanwhile, oil traders are keen on the developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A success or failure in any breakthrough in peace talks would make a difference in the world's energy supply.

Ritterbusch and Associates analysts have observed that oil prices are holding above recent lows, awaiting markets to achieve clarity on the Ukraine-Russia discussions and the Venezuela news. This is because the waiting period has curbed aggressive selling that has helped the current price of oil to stabilize.

Oil Sentiment is Affected by the following Major Developments:

The European Union also settled on borrowing an amount of €90 billion in order to fund the defense of Ukraine in the next two years.
Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed compromise plans and rebelled against EU plans.
Ukraine allegedly attacked a Russian oil tanker that was stationed in a shadow fleet with aerial drones.

These measures evidenced the increasing interest in the oil shipping routes, which is a factor that historically favors higher prices. Any long-term attacks or sanctions on oil transportation would soon drive the current price of oil to a higher level.

Refining Margins Under Pressure, But Opportunity Remains

Other energy market prices for U.S. gasoline futures have just fallen to a four-year low. This fall drove the spreads of gasoline crack, a measure of refinery profit margins, to their lowest point since February.

Although this appears negative at first, it has two significant implications:

Reduced margins could slow the number of refinery runs, alleviating oversupply.
Less refining activity will help sustain the crude demand in the long run.

To long-term investors, this kind of shift is usually the initial step in the recovery phase of a market rebalancing that, in the future, will favor the current prices of oil.

U.S. Production Signals: Permian Rig Count Falls

The U.S. shale fields are another quite bullish indicator of oil prices. The Permian Basin, the largest oil production area in the U.S., lost three rigs this week, to 246, the lowest level since August 2021.

Rig counts are generally considered to be one of the indicators of future production trends. The fact that there are fewer active rigs nowadays tends to imply a slower growth in production months in the future.

Why This is Important to the Investor and Mineral Owners.

A decrease in the rate of drilling may restrict future supply.
The current price of oil is facilitated by lower growth in supply.
The owners of minerals might experience more stable royalty payments with time.

Although American production is still high, this deceleration indicates that producers are being more wary, which is usually a healthy indication of prices not falling.

Investor Outlook: Why the Current Price of Oil Looks More Balanced

Although short-term trends are unstable, there are factors that indicate a more positive outlook for the oil and gas investors:

There are high geopolitical risks.
There can be a slow U.S. production development.
Sailing and sanctions liability are on the increase.
The demand is stable in strategic areas.

All of these together suggest a slowly balancing market. The current price of oil is not likely to jump up immediately, but the risks of downside may be less significant than they were only several weeks ago.

What This Means for Oil & Gas Investors and Mineral Owners

The current situation is hopeful but cautious for the investors and mineral owners. Although the prices are not as high as they were last year, the price of oil per barrel today is an indication of a market that is taking in bad news without collapsing.

Positive Takeaways

Prices that are stable are favorable to long-term planning.
Less drilling may create a supply squeeze.
There is a price floor that is offered by geopolitical risks.
Low break-even costs make assets appealing.

This can be especially applied to the mineral owners since predictable oil prices are associated with more predictable royalty disbursements.

Oil Price News to Watch in the Coming Weeks

With the markets on the march, there are various changes that may define the next step in oil prices:

Implementation information on the Venezuelan tanker blockade.
Development or failure of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations.
U.S. rig change and production.
Asian and European demand indicators.

Monitoring this oil price news will be important to investors who will seek to place themselves at the head of the next cycle.

Final Words: A Market Finding Its Footing

The current recovery of the oil prices indicates that the market is not disregarding risk. As the question of oversupply and demand persists, emerging threats of supply and slower drilling in the United States are aiding in the maintenance of the current price of oil.

This time can be a consolidation phase, but not a decline phase for long-term oil and gas investors. Closer supply in the future, constrained production, and some form of geopolitical uncertainty give the background of a more stable oil market, which is slowly coming into being.

As usual, it will be necessary to maintain the level of knowledge and pay attention to the basics. The WTI crude oil price, the wider international markets, and the constant oil price news will still inform the decisions of the investors, but at present, the picture does not seem to be as bleak as it was before.